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Satellites as Indicators of Space Weather

Presented by:

Mars Buttfield-Addison

Mars Buttfield-Addison

University of Tasmania

 

Andrew Hellicar

CSIRO Data61

 

It has long been theorised that changes in solar behaviour throughout the solar cycle has an impact on satellite behaviour. Solar flux affects dramatic changes in thermospheric temperatures, which then impacts composition and density, imparting levels of drag that may vary significantly throughout an 11-year cycle. Because of this, satellite operators have fought hard for improved methods of predicting and understanding space weather. The impact of unmonitored solar storms on the deployment and decay of smallsats in LEO has become more well-known, since recent incidents—such as the failed February 2022 Starlink deployment by SpaceX—have reached mainstream media. And predictions that the current (25th) solar cycle will be significantly more active than the previous cycle are increasing. So as solar activity peaks once more; can the results of solar fluctuations be used to tell us more about them? In this study, large debris objects that have been present in LEO for the last three solar cycles (launched pre-1986) were identified—around 440 objects. Then, ephemerides were summarised and analysed to identify changes in altitude or decay rate that would correspond to changes in solar activity during the last three cycles. Results indicate whether measurement of large and well-tracked debris objects may be used as an indicator of solar flux.

Category:

SSA

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